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Valuation Question - Relationship between Mileage and Return on Investments

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    Valuation Question - Relationship between Mileage and Return on Investments

    Y'all have probably seen in the for sale section that i've been offloading a bunch of meaty parts. It's with a heavy heart that i've decided to move on from the E46 platform after a fairly short window of time. Early last year I found a great example E46 that I wasn't able to pass on. I've loved every mile i've driven on the car since then, however my passion for the S65 remains too strong and i've decided it's time to pull the trigger. I've tried to find any way possible to avoid selling the E46, although I just don't have the space for an additional car and it doesn't seem like that will be changing soon (Seattle real estate is $$$$).

    The reason I started this thread is because I feel I lack some understanding on the valuation side of things with M cars, particularly as they get to be higher mileage and i'd like to learn from y'all. I'm trying to develop a recommendation on where I should price the car, and there are a few inputs into this question that I need some perspective on. I can get into the specs/description of the car below if anyone fancies offering their perspective on what the car is worth, however that's not necessarily my goal here.

    I want to understand how the valuation would reasonably be impacted by certain investments into the car, and how that return would vary depending on the mileage of the car. Of particular note to me is that the big 3 were not done on the car by the previous owners. I had been planning to knock them all out in one go before putting any real miles onto the odometer, however the cost required to do so is significant in my area (~$4.1K for subframe reinforcement, ~$2.0K for VANOS servicing, $2.5K for Rod Bearings, >$10K in total). Had I been planning to own the car for the long-term performing these would be a no brainer. Although now that i'm planning to sell the car I just can't imagine the market will let me price 100% of that $10K into a 104K mile car. I'm questioning whether or not I should sink that into the car and take the hit, or if I should let whoever decides to own the car for the long-term address these. Another, albeit smaller example of this is the OEM CSL Bootlid that I threw on the car which I sourced very early this year. In short, how do you all think about the relationship between the cost of certain high value investments into the car and the impact to the valuation of the car? How does this change dependent upon mileage? Am keen to learn more to help my near-term efforts to sell this car, although i'm sure this is also relevant to other M cars / other performance cars and i'm interested in the discussion.

    Specs for reference:
    -2004 MY w/ ~104k miles (purchased around 103k)
    -2 previous owners with healthy service records (lacking any indications of the big 3 being addressed)
    -Carbon Black / Black interior
    -MT from the factory
    -older ICE (no navigation)
    -Interior is in great shape (8 or 9 out of 10), exterior paint work is showing it's age (maybe 5 out of 10)
    -put some money into refreshing various parts thus far, no outstanding issues with the car (aside from the big 3 needing to be done)
    Last edited by keljos; 11-05-2021, 10:56 AM.
    2012 E92 M3 Competition - LeMans Blue / Speed Cloth - 6MT
    [SOLD] 2004 E46 M3 Coupe - Carbon Black / Black - 6MT

    #2
    There's definitely a more scientific way to triangulate the price, but in these times it also seems that "whatever someone will pay" applies haha.

    The prices for the Big 3 do seem crazy high – I got the rod bearings done by a decent shop for ~$1k + $100 for ACL bearings in LA. Are Seattle prices really that insane? I think that if you can get at least VANOS and rod bearings done you'll have a better shot at the higher end of the wide band these days. At least your miles are relatively low and it's a later model year, so I imagine that would put a buyer more at ease about lack of subframe reinforcement.

    Regarding exterior / paint, unless we're talking major chips / dents a good paint correction would probably be worthwhile as well. I'd probably take care of those and have no qualms about whatever price I was able to get - but just IMO, curious what others think.
    Last edited by dukeofchen; 11-05-2021, 11:07 AM.
    '04 LSB Coupe 6MT
    All my money goes towards maintenance.

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by dukeofchen View Post
      There's definitely a more scientific way to triangulate the price, but in these times it also seems that "whatever someone will pay" applies haha.

      The prices for the Big 3 do seem crazy high – I got the rod bearings done by a decent shop for ~$1k + $100 for ACL bearings in LA. Are Seattle prices really that insane?
      There are not many shops in my area that will do the subframe work, so that price is what it is in the area. However even if I assume that VANOS & Rod Bearings are $1K each for parts/labor, I still doubt the market would let me price in $6k+ into a car of this mileage. This would be my first time as a seller in this bonkers market, maybe i'm being overly pessimistic, however I have a finance background and thus i'm trying to at least plan with a more conservative point of view.
      2012 E92 M3 Competition - LeMans Blue / Speed Cloth - 6MT
      [SOLD] 2004 E46 M3 Coupe - Carbon Black / Black - 6MT

      Comment


        #4
        Yeah, if you can get the VANOS / rod bearings sorted for a reasonable price I'd say there's little risk of coming out in the red on those. The question of upside would probably come down to salesmanship and patience finding a buyer, and whether you're willing to put up with the effort of getting them done.

        Low 100k miles is relatively but not extremely low, but I do think the combination of that + a locked down engine would present pretty well in the market with a well kept interior and MT spec. At this age resprays are in the cards for all of us if we are keen on maintaining a mint exterior.
        Last edited by dukeofchen; 11-05-2021, 11:16 AM.
        '04 LSB Coupe 6MT
        All my money goes towards maintenance.

        Comment


          #5
          I think in this market people would care less about vanos/bearings/subframe. At your labor rates you probably won't get that money back.

          What I have seen time and time again is properly detailed cars fetching far more money. Find a good pdr guy, get all the dings removed and pay a top level detailer 8-1k for paint correction plus a coating and your car instantly commands 5k more because it looks better than any others for sale at that moment.
          2003.5 MT JB/B - CSL SCHRICK SUPERSPRINT EISENMANN JRZ SWIFT MILLWAY APR ENDLESS BBS/SSR DREXLER KMP SACHS RECARO AR SLON MKRS GSP DMG KARBONIUS CP AUTOSOLUTIONS KOYO

          Comment


            #6
            Tiag and Carbon Black are the two least valuable colors according to the 450 data points available on BAT

            Average price for a manual coupe in tiag or CB with mileage between 93k and 106k is between $16,000 and $22,000 . Those on the high end tend to have some of the big three addressed, special interior, csl trunk, or some other attribute that makes them special.

            Then you have this outlier (which did have racp address, custom exhaust, new diff, some mods), so who knows:

            Bid for the chance to own a 2006 BMW M3 Coupe 6-Speed at auction with Bring a Trailer, the home of the best vintage and classic cars online. Lot #47,778.
            Last edited by oceansize; 11-05-2021, 11:38 AM.
            3.91 | CMP Subframe & RTAB Bushings | SMG (Relocated & Rebuilt) | ESS Gen 3 Supercharger | Redish | Beisan | GC Coilovers & ARCAs | Imola Interior | RE Rasp | RE Diablo | Storm Motorwerks Paddles | Will ZCPM3 Shift Knob | Apex ARC-8 19x9, 19x9.5 | Sony XAV-AX5000 | BAVSOUND | CSL & 255 SMG Upgrades | Tiag | Vert w/Hardtop

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by jet_dogg View Post
              I think in this market people would care less about vanos/bearings/subframe. At your labor rates you probably won't get that money back.

              What I have seen time and time again is properly detailed cars fetching far more money. Find a good pdr guy, get all the dings removed and pay a top level detailer 8-1k for paint correction plus a coating and your car instantly commands 5k more because it looks better than any others for sale at that moment.
              Sound advice on the optics of the car, an irrational market will be irrational.
              Last edited by keljos; 11-05-2021, 11:50 AM.
              2012 E92 M3 Competition - LeMans Blue / Speed Cloth - 6MT
              [SOLD] 2004 E46 M3 Coupe - Carbon Black / Black - 6MT

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by oceansize View Post
                Tiag and Carbon Black are the two least valuable colors according to the 450 data points available on BAT

                Average price for a manual coupe in tiag or CB with mileage between 93k and 106k is between $16,000 and $22,000 . Those on the high end tend to have some of the big three addressed, special interior, csl trunk, or some other attribute that makes them special.

                Then you have this outlier (which did have racp address, custom exhaust, new diff, some mods), so who knows:

                https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2006-bmw-m3-coupe-63/
                That's pretty dead on the range i've had cached in my mind. Obviously no room whatsoever to price in the costs to do the big three given what i'm working with. The condition of the interior, lack of previous abuse, and the CSL trunk will be the selling points. There's a lot of money being thrown around in every direction in SEA, may be able to get away with being another outlier vs the BaT historical averages.
                2012 E92 M3 Competition - LeMans Blue / Speed Cloth - 6MT
                [SOLD] 2004 E46 M3 Coupe - Carbon Black / Black - 6MT

                Comment


                  #9
                  Those service costs seem excessively high. Have you contacted AMS AutoGroup in Tacoma? If their prices are more reasonable you may get close to 100% back (mid $20s vs ~$18k) and it will be easier to sell the car.
                  2001 TiAG M3 - 6mt Coupe, Anthracite Impuse - SOLD

                  2001 TiAG M3 - 6mt Coupe, Black Nappa Leather
                  Karbonius | Supersprint | Cat Cams | Beisan | Fikse Wheels | Mile End Composites | AST 5200 | Hotchkis | Brembo | Recaro | Rouge SMF | RTD | Yellow Tag Rack | HTE Performance

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by DJAM3 View Post
                    Those service costs seem excessively high. Have you contacted AMS AutoGroup in Tacoma? If their prices are more reasonable you may get close to 100% back (mid $20s vs ~$18k) and it will be easier to sell the car.
                    That shop has never landed on my radar, thanks for the tip. I'll reach out.
                    2012 E92 M3 Competition - LeMans Blue / Speed Cloth - 6MT
                    [SOLD] 2004 E46 M3 Coupe - Carbon Black / Black - 6MT

                    Comment


                      #11
                      No problem. On a side note, if I were in your shoes with all the parts you collected, I would have went all in on the E46 including a CSL roof. Enjoy peak E46 M3 for a month then shoot for $40k on BAT 😎.

                      I'm kicking myself for not picking up your karbonius airbox as soon as I saw it FS.
                      2001 TiAG M3 - 6mt Coupe, Anthracite Impuse - SOLD

                      2001 TiAG M3 - 6mt Coupe, Black Nappa Leather
                      Karbonius | Supersprint | Cat Cams | Beisan | Fikse Wheels | Mile End Composites | AST 5200 | Hotchkis | Brembo | Recaro | Rouge SMF | RTD | Yellow Tag Rack | HTE Performance

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by DJAM3 View Post
                        No problem. On a side note, if I were in your shoes with all the parts you collected, I would have went all in on the E46 including a CSL roof. Enjoy peak E46 M3 for a month then shoot for $40k on BAT 😎.

                        I'm kicking myself for not picking up your karbonius airbox as soon as I saw it FS.
                        I definitely considered building the car out like that in pursuit of a flashy BaT sale or something along those lines, the CF roof conversion was on my wishlist as well. At the end of the day that would have just been many, many months of work and I didn't have it in me. Figured i'd rather have an amicable split with the car, spread some of the love back to the community with some good deals on parts and move on to my next project.
                        2012 E92 M3 Competition - LeMans Blue / Speed Cloth - 6MT
                        [SOLD] 2004 E46 M3 Coupe - Carbon Black / Black - 6MT

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by jet_dogg View Post
                          I think in this market people would care less about vanos/bearings/subframe. At your labor rates you probably won't get that money back.

                          What I have seen time and time again is properly detailed cars fetching far more money. Find a good pdr guy, get all the dings removed and pay a top level detailer 8-1k for paint correction plus a coating and your car instantly commands 5k more because it looks better than any others for sale at that moment.
                          The market might be frothy and completely irrational at the upper end, but I think for a more common spec at the lower end of the price range the value of these fixes is more incremental. All dependent on the labor cost for breakeven though.

                          100% agreed on the full detail, I have a long weekend of paint correction ahead of me.


                          Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                          Last edited by dukeofchen; 11-06-2021, 09:18 AM.
                          '04 LSB Coupe 6MT
                          All my money goes towards maintenance.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            I would skip the Rod bearings/Vanos at those prices you were quoted. Definitely get the full detail, maybe skip the ceramic coating to save some cost. Just be aware if you post on Facebook BMW groups or the like and the big 3 are not done you will receive an enormous amount of shit talking if your price is "too High" to them. So if you dont do the big 3 post it up on Marketplace but not the groups to avoid the melee of attacks.

                            You also might have good luck with selling locally with a for sale sign or craigslist.

                            I will say I recently purchased mine in August for $22k with 123k Miles Carbon Black/Imola rod bearings and vanos done plus some other things. Interior 8/10, Exterior 6/10

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