Will miss the combustion engine..

[stephen]

I think you guys might be a bit optimistic with your estimations here. The infrastructure for EVs to completely replace ICE vehicles just isn’t there and probably won’t be even in 10-20 years. Gas powered cars won’t be banned in 10-20 years either without the government getting involved in a way similar to “cash for clunkers” but on a much larger scale.

[Obioban]

What are people's thoughts on Toyota holding on to HFC (hydrogen fuel cells)? Emits water, potentially not as "full lifecycle" impactful as an EV car because you're not plugged into a power grid using coal as the power source, etc.

I used to follow this topic more closely when the arguments that a Hummer H2 was more environmentally friendly than a Prius - the whole cradle-to-grave argument and mining for precious metals and so forth, but my information is admittedly dated at this point.

So my question is genuine, I'm curious.

Coal is on its way out, recently more than ever.

Most of anti EV stuff out there is just oil lobby FUD.

hydrogen suffers the chicken and egg issue. No reason to make hydrogen stations until there’s cars, no reason to sell/buy cars until there’s stations. EVs largely bypassed that by letting you charge at home.

And filling them sucks:

[jet_dogg]

I think you guys might be a bit optimistic with your estimations here. The infrastructure for EVs to completely replace ICE vehicles just isn’t there and probably won’t be even in 10-20 years. Gas powered cars won’t be banned in 10-20 years either without the government getting involved in a way similar to “cash for clunkers” but on a much larger scale.

My linemen here in california were laughing about the infrastructure for all this being a nonexistent joke, I mean they've got rolling blackouts in norcal

[DoubleSidedTape]

They are still selling gas powered cars, they will still be around for at least another 20 years. You can still drive a car made 100 years ago, you will still be able to drive your M3 for a long time.

[Obioban]

I don’t expect gas cars to be illegal any time soon. I expect people to catch on to the facts that EVs are an order of magnitude better as DDs and not worse than current production ICEVs dynamically. No maintenance, not having to stop for gas, no warm up period, lots of power in normal people sporty driving, vastly less repairs because they're so much simpler, more useable space in smaller packages, huge money savings vs buying gas, etc-- they're just absurdly better as transport (aka ignoring the fun part of cars, that 99% of people don't care about). As people switch over to EVs, less gas stations will exist. As less gas stations exist, ICEVs will be more of a pita to DD and more people will move over to EVs. As ICEV usage decreases, the efficiency of scale for fuel production and delivery falls apart, making gas more expensive… causing more people to move to EVs. my expectation is that the transition to EVs will happen slowly, and then, suddenly, all at once. My guess is that point is <10 years out. Maybe sooner.

Gas cars don’t need to be illegal to be infeasible to DD. Once we reach the inflection point, the dominos start falling.

[tnord]

My linemen here in california were laughing about the infrastructure for all this being a nonexistent joke, I mean they've got rolling blackouts in norcal

right, because there weren't any problems in Texas last year and linemen are definitely experts.

[sapote]

Buy them while you still can.

I believe this is true. In the future ICE cars is the minority of cars on the road, but they are legal in most US habitats (maybe a few major cities with heavy congestion have limits for ICE). It is the Grandfather clause and people cannot be forced to stop using things I they had bought and used.

Nice vintage ICE cars will become collectable, as things like Ford Focus and the like will be in junkyard as it's hard to find shops for repair/maintenance, and less economically to keep them around.

I still be able to drive my 1967 Porsche 912 daily without any smog check requirement because of the Grandfather clause, and it will be continued. Yes, Porsche cannot make and sell new 912 cars, but the law will allow owner to drive these old cars.

[sapote]

There is potential that won't last. They are stupid fast because they have no regulation. Once they are mainstream I can see them being subject to restriction, max lithium/copper content etc, and soon there after it will all be autonomous and the point moot.

For DD, EV is unquestionably better so not all bad but I am sad and it does just suck, I wish the EV "revolution" didn't happen for another 20 years. I mean just getting up and jumping in a cool car for coffee on a Saturday morning is such a reward at the end of the week, will an electric M3 provide the same thrill?

The only special about the Tesla is fast acceleration, and the top speed is nothing special. There is law on max speed applied to all drivers, but will be no law governs how fast a car can accelerate, but it is part of the vehicle safety design subjected under DOT regulation. It can accelerate fast but must also be stable (depends on the stability control system). There is no law to stop stupid people drive dangerously and hurt others, EV or ICE. Electric motor inherently has maximum torque at low RPM, and decreased as rpm increasing.

The newest car I own is my 2006 M3, but I welcome smart computer controlled EV. I hope they help to improve traffic (most human drivers are bad at driving), less pollution. I also welcome the current Administration to invest more in EV, power grid, Broadband network, education; we must in order to be completive and the leader or we will be behind other nations who had leapfrogged over us on these areas.

[Gt4]

I like driving an EV for daily commute. Makes me appreciate more every rides in my E46 M3 during weekend while keeping it in pristine condition.

I will replace my 2021 Tesla Model 3 next year with a 2022 BMW I4. Finally BMW enter the electric market with something interesting/that makes more sense than an I3 or I8…

[TexaZ3]

What are people's thoughts on Toyota holding on to HFC (hydrogen fuel cells)? Emits water, potentially not as "full lifecycle" impactful as an EV car because you're not plugged into a power grid using coal as the power source, etc.

I used to follow this topic more closely when the arguments that a Hummer H2 was more environmentally friendly than a Prius - the whole cradle-to-grave argument and mining for precious metals and so forth, but my information is admittedly dated at this point.

So my question is genuine, I'm curious.

Hydrogen is difficult to produce, transport, and store. It is also expensive and not at all friendly for the environment to make. I doubt this will ever take off.

[Jimbo's M]

Hydrogen is difficult to produce, transport, and store. It is also expensive and not at all friendly for the environment to make. I doubt this will ever take off.

Besides, who wants to be surrounded in bumper to bumper traffic by a boat load of little Hindenburg's.

[lemoose]

Besides, who wants to be surrounded in bumper to bumper traffic by a boat load of little Hindenburg's.

The flash point of hydrogen is stupidly higher than gasoline, also its a gas so it doesnt pool up like gasoline either.

[usdmej]

What are people's thoughts on Toyota holding on to HFC (hydrogen fuel cells)?

Toyota takes very few risks (they could 100% build their own sports car but still partner with bmw (supra) and subaru (FRS) to conserve resources.
But, they have bet heavily on Hydrogen being the future of automotive fuel, and it's obviously not playing out how they'd like it to.

they've also been known to quietly play the political game to further their interests

https://www.thedrive.com/news/36113/auto-industry-scare-campaign-is-trying-to-trick-voters-into-killing-a-landmark-right-to-repair-law

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a29818835/trump-toyota-fuel-economy/

so it'll be interesting to see if they fold or continue to push Hydrogen

[bigjae46]

Here is a fact...ICE isn't going away. This is why...

When you refine crude oil or natural gas you get a constant stream of products that you cannot physically change. You get X amount of jet fuel, gas, diesel, butane, propane, pet coke (doesn't get your pets high), asphalts, sulfur, and other stuff from a barrel of crude oil. That will vary depending if its light, heavy, sour and/or sweet. Almost everything we touch has a hydrocarbon cracked or refined from natural gas or crude oil. Unless the world finds another way to use the jet, diesel and gasoline that comes from crude oil...its going to be a useful energy source or wasted.

The world has to have hydrocarbons - PC boards, synthetic fibers (nylon - anyone wear cotton tightie whities anymore), fiberglass to make blades for wind turbines, wire sheathing, plastic..I can go on for a long, long time. You can't build a modern house or building without hydrocarbons. You can't build a Tesla without hydrocarbons.

Realistically, transportation will have multiple power sources - hybrids. And we already power cars with moonshine - ethanol = moonshine + denaturant (usually gasoline).

[pawa_k2001]

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