Import vehicle tariffs include parts

[maw1124]

"Trump said the tariffs would usher in “a golden age” and generate “trillions and trillions of dollars.” " ~ NYT DealBook

Brilliant. So I've gone from one president off his fucking rocker to another president off his fucking rocker.

Aside from the risk that some stuff simply ceases to be made altogether, we have the other risk of sellers increasing the prices of CURRENT inventory in a profit grab, blaming it on tariffs. We know that's going to happen.

Like I said, suddenly I'm glad I spent what I spent the last couple years bringing all the cars up to snuff. The NLA threat was animating my decisions then but this just ratified all those decisions.

No one makes any decent tires in the US and we'll all need tires, so thinking about this part v that part doesn't make much sense.

maw

[sapote]

No - parts that enter on or after April 3 are affected.

But nothing stop sellers to increase the price of parts already in their warehouse.

[davidinnyc]

But nothing stop sellers to increase the price of parts already in their warehouse.

This is true - you’re right. No way to distinguish “old” and new inventory for buyers, so it’s going to be really challenging for enthusiasts. I’m just lucky I went on a buying spree late last year and early this year for everything…

[bigjae46]

I think tariffs are being used to control long term interest rates.

The FED lowered their rate (overnight bank-to-bank) which usually results in lowering most interest rates. When the FED did that, long-term rates went up. Treasury auctions have been not going well since Q1 2024-ish. In fact, Yellin was retiring low rate long-term bonds and reissuing short term t-bills at a much higher rate (2% vs 4% to 5%). Anything 10 years or longer were selling at discounts at the auctions which equals higher yields and higher interest rates.

That is the past.

The government MUST keep interest rates low to keep the annual interest payments low enough so they don't start eating up a higher % of annual revenue. I think we are close to 16% right now. If long-term rates keep going up then the government has to use short-term rates which can far more volatile. So Yellin was screwing things up by converning L/T debt into T-bills which increased interest costs to prop up the banking sector for Biden...probably for the election.

Here is what I think the Trump bet is...

As you can see, the DXY and the dollar as a whole weakened today...by A LOT. Investors are pushing out the stock market into bonds - for the past 2 weeks or so - as indicated by falling yields which means bonds are more valuable. This will push long-term rates down. This saves businesses -especially in the real estate sectors. It could also be a way of reducing the budget deficit AND national debt - increase producivity through growth and more tax revenue...I think the gov't will also use inflation as well.

This could eventually enable to economy to grow through yet more financing and maybe bring back more production to the US. The problem is labor. If you bring back production then will it be cheaper? Let's say a factory worker makes $40/hr today. Re-shore hundreds of billions...maybe trillions in production...those factory workers will command $60/hr - 2022 labor market?

I'm not a Trump fan but I don't think it is an insane idea. Not many other options at this point. The problem is interest + Medicare + Social Security is growing faster than tax revenue. Eventually something will give. The question is will the US have any control? If we allow the world to start rejecting the idea of the US Dollar as the world reserve currency...it's gonna get ugly and fast.

[D-O]

I think tariffs are being used to control long term interest rates.

The FED lowered their rate (overnight bank-to-bank) which usually results in lowering most interest rates. When the FED did that, long-term rates went up. Treasury auctions have been not going well since Q1 2024-ish. In fact, Yellin was retiring low rate long-term bonds and reissuing short term t-bills at a much higher rate (2% vs 4% to 5%). Anything 10 years or longer were selling at discounts at the auctions which equals higher yields and higher interest rates.

That is the past.

The government MUST keep interest rates low to keep the annual interest payments low enough so they don't start eating up a higher % of annual revenue. I think we are close to 16% right now. If long-term rates keep going up then the government has to use short-term rates which can far more volatile. So Yellin was screwing things up by converning L/T debt into T-bills which increased interest costs to prop up the banking sector for Biden...probably for the election.

Here is what I think the Trump bet is...

As you can see, the DXY and the dollar as a whole weakened today...by A LOT. Investors are pushing out the stock market into bonds - for the past 2 weeks or so - as indicated by falling yields which means bonds are more valuable. This will push long-term rates down. This saves businesses -especially in the real estate sectors. It could also be a way of reducing the budget deficit AND national debt - increase producivity through growth and more tax revenue...I think the gov't will also use inflation as well.

This could eventually enable to economy to grow through yet more financing and maybe bring back more production to the US. The problem is labor. If you bring back production then will it be cheaper? Let's say a factory worker makes $40/hr today. Re-shore hundreds of billions...maybe trillions in production...those factory workers will command $60/hr - 2022 labor market?

I'm not a Trump fan but I don't think it is an insane idea. Not many other options at this point. The problem is interest + Medicare + Social Security is growing faster than tax revenue. Eventually something will give. The question is will the US have any control? If we allow the world to start rejecting the idea of the US Dollar as the world reserve currency...it's gonna get ugly and fast.

So you think the Mar-a-Lago accord is real? I think there are easier but almost certainly more painful ways to address spending and revenue.

[lemoose]

Never attribute to m̶a̶l̶i̶c̶e̶ 5d chess that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

[sapote]

He's saying high tariff is to bring back manufacturing, but can they grow avocados, mangoes, foods etc. in U.S.?

It's a nightmare for companies as it takes years to build factories and train workers ready, but then the next administration will cancel the tariff then what?

[D-O]

He's saying high tariff is to bring back manufacturing, but can they grow avocados, mangoes, foods etc. in U.S.?

It's a nightmare for companies as it takes years to build factories and train workers ready, but then the next administration will cancel the tariff then what?

This is why our elected representatives need to slip on their big girl panties and legislate.

[D-O]

I did read today that the parts tariffs do not go into effect until May 3rd. Get those Karbonius and Mile End orders in!

[PSUEng]

I did read today that the parts tariffs do not go into effect until May 3rd. Get those Karbonius and Mile End orders in!

Should we start a panic buy thread? I'm half joking actually. I've been buying "stuff" for a while now b/c it seems pricing just kept rising on parts anyway.

[bigjae46]

So you think the Mar-a-Lago accord is real? I think there are easier but almost certainly more painful ways to address spending and revenue.

Not sure. What I don’t like is we get I’m slapping tariffs on X country because they suck and it will be great. Then we need to guess on what the big picture move is. It makes it extremely hard to get on board with his moves.

Other countries have high tariffs on US goods. I’m not against this if it is to level the playing field. But to achieve what?

[maw1124]

This is why our elected representatives need to slip on their big girl panties and legislate.

Agreed... but they'd all rather have the tax cuts.

Money isn't made it's transferred... so you have to ask from whom to whom is this transfer?? I say it's from the 2/3 consumer economy to the 1/3 producer economy, from the consumer who wants a strong USD to the producers and deficit hawks who want a weak USD, from the people who worry about the price of eggs and gas to the people who don't even look at the price of eggs and gas as much as they do their effective tax rate.

This is all very clear to me, I just hate the hypocrisy of it all. There will be no increased US production of the scale they're jawing. That horse is LONG out of the barn. They will say this raises trillions SOLELY so they can argue their tax cuts are "revenue neutral." But the people who care about the price of eggs and gas won't see those tax cuts.

maw

EDIT... just read bigjae46 last 2 posts... again I think seeing the matrix more clearly... but there will be no "level playing field"... the US consumes not produces unless someone here thinks making $1 an hour in a sweatshop producing fabric or picking avocados is a way of life... I say that narrative IS the hypocrisy.

[Cubieman]

He's saying high tariff is to bring back manufacturing, but can they grow avocados, mangoes, foods etc. in U.S.?

It's a nightmare for companies as it takes years to build factories and train workers ready, but then the next administration will cancel the tariff then what?

Unfortunately sometimes even when a tariff is undone the goods affected will drop in price but not as low as they were before the tariff.

[SQ13]

This only applies (applied?) to purchases over $800. I’ve never paid an import fee for anything that cost less than that. Idk if trump changed this.

My Chinese made eBay parts!!! 😭😭

https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-considering-revoking-tariff-exemptions-182336387.html

[Nate047]

Russia isn't on the tariff list (hey how weird and shocking) so you can still get your Slon parts for the same reasonable low prices